There’s been a lot of rumors lately about the possibility of Vice President Joe Biden running for President in the upcoming election. First of all it is worth noting the political atmosphere right now. A recent study came out that now shows that Bernie Sanders is leading by +7 points in New Hampshire (Page 2). In the same state it was reported that favorability for Sanders was 78% with Clinton’s at 63% and rapidly dropping due to the whole email scandal surrounding her.
With this happening the rumors about Biden begin circulating again, and this time with more coverage. There is still some time before the first Democratic debate in October, but if this is going to happen Biden needs to get moving. Of course he may not have time to, depending if Hillary bounces back or not.
Once we get further into the campaign the stories and ads against Clinton will start to multiply and attack her already tarnished name. Biden could be the Democrat’s answer to this. If favorability continues to drop for Clinton, Biden could run as essentially her replacement to challenge Sanders for the nomination. There could be many reasons why the party would not want to run Sanders for president, but my theory is that he is too unorthodox for the party and would not stand well with most moderate voters. Biden on the other hand would have the advantage of taking the moderate stance between Sanders and Clinton to scoop up all the voters in-between to run an effective campaign.
Let’s say by next week Clinton’s ratings continue to drop and it looks like she’s dead in the water, I would be willing to bet if they dropped enough Biden would run. Whether that would be a smart move or not is still debatable. One advantage of Sanders’ grassroots movement is that his supporters are with him to the end, or else the movement wouldn’t be as large as it already is. If Biden were to run he would cause a rift between the voters already supporting him and the voters supporting Clinton. A few would stay with Clinton but a good amount of them would switch over to Biden. A poll in Iowa done on August twenty fifth showed Biden at 11% of the vote, and he isn’t even running. I could be underestimating how much support he’d get but I doubt it would be enough to get a significant lead that quick.
Everyone already knows Clinton’s name, people are quickly learning Sanders’ name, and even while many people know Biden’s name they don’t know much about him. I’ll be honest he hasn’t been the most up front politician we’ve ever had, and many don’t know where he stands. This is why now more than ever the election will really come down to the debates and how many people are attracted to the grassroots movement of Sanders or the upfront conventional style of Biden. Although he has been a respected long time member of congress he might not connect with voters in the same way.
If Biden chooses to run or not, it was only one Poll that showed Sanders to start taking the lead. The most recent national poll done shows Clinton with +26, still losing much of the footing she once had. Sanders is still gaining but we may have to wait until the debates to see the spike he needs.